Amid apparent widespread media acceptance that we are experiencing a swine of a “flu pandemic”, it was announced 3 days ago that 29 people in the UK have died from the illness, 26 in England, 3 in Scotland.
Let’s remind ourselves once again that the word “pandemic” derives from the Greek pan = all, and demos = people. An incidence rate of 73.4 people per 100,000 is a long, long way from being “all people”. It doesn’t even come close to an epidemic, a far lesser animal than a pandemic. According to this analysis of influenza-like illness incidence in England and Wales over a 40-year period, current incidence rates are within the bottom 25% of the range of what would be considered ‘normal’. We don’t even start getting into epidemic territory until rates exceed 400 per 100,000. And given the excessive media and government hype which GPs are dubbing scaremongering, one has to ask to what extent existing cases feature psychosomatic rather than viral symptoms …
Let’s also consider this piece of research which examines the mortality from “ordinary” influenza in the United States in the 22 years between 1979 and 2001. During this period, the population of the US rose from 225 to 278 million. Extrapolating the average annual mortality rate of 41,400 to the present UK population of 61 million gives an annual mortality in excess of 10,100. This means that on average nearly 850 people per month in the UK are probably dying from “ordinary” flu.
Without in the least trying to belittle the tragedy for the families who’ve lost relatives to swine flu, surely that’s a figure deserving of a much bigger headline than 29 deaths? Pandemic? There’s only one thing you can say to that really …
Tags: swine flu, swine influenza
